ECONOMYTOP STORY

Economy: KPMG doubts South Africa has overtaken Nigeria

 

  • Corroborates Dangote’s position

KPMG, a professional service company, disagrees with reports that South Africs has overtaken Nigeria as Africa’s largest economy in dollar terms, saying the calculations behind this assertion are methodologically incorrect.

The company states that the reported dollar estimates were based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the end of 2015 while the exchange rate readings are from August 2016.

According to KPMG senior economist Christie Viljoen, “The time difference between the two data points makes these calculations spurious at best and not really a reliable indicator of recent developments.”

The assumption that SA had overtaken Nigeria as Africa’s biggest economy in dollar terms emerged following the recent rand rally and the devaluation of the naira in June 2016.

In order to reflect the impact of the naira devaluation and the rand’s recovery on comparable GDP estimates, a calculation would need to be made based on GDP data for the second quarter of 2016, which are yet to be released.

The 2016 second-quarter GDP reports from SA and Nigeria would reflect stagnant economies and revisions to historical data, Viljoen says.

“From an exchange rate perspective, the naira ended the period (second quarter) notably weaker while the rand was quite stronger.”

Viljoen said he would be able to calculate the top three largest economies in Africa once second-quarter GDP data were made available by countries over the next few weeks.

Countries have always battled for the top spot particularly as this implies they are more attractive to foreign investors.

Investors mostly prioritise investing in countries with a higher economic growth potential, Investment Solutions chief economist Lesiba Mothata says. On this measure, Nigeria fares better than SA as it has the ability to grow faster than SA, he says.

The Reserve Bank has successively lowered its potential output estimates for SA from about 3.5% in 2010 to current levels of around 1.4 per cent.

Nigeria overtook SA as the continent’s biggest economy in 2014 after rebasing its GDP. SA then lost out the second position to Egypt after the rand weakened significantly in 2015.

The position of KPMG is in tandem with that of African richest man and president of Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote who recently faulted the claim that South Africa has overtaken Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa

Speaking during the 2016 Presidential Policy Dialogue session organised by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) in Lagos, last week, Dangote insists that Nigeria’s place has not yet been usurped by South Africa.

It would be recalled that Bloomberg wrote on the issue last week Wednesday when it claimed that South Africa has overtaken Nigeria as the biggest economy in Africa.

This is how Business247 News online captured the story:

Barely about two years after losing it to Nigeria, South African economy has regained the position of Africa’s largest in dollar terms, as the value of the nations’ currencies moved in opposite directions.

According to Bloomberg report monitored by Business247 News Online, based on GDP at the end of 2015 published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the size of South African’s economy is $301 billion at the rand’s current exchange rate, while Nigeria’s GDP is $296 billion.

That is because the rand has gained more than 16 per cent against the dollar since the start of 2016, and Nigeria’s naira has lost more than a third of its value after the central bank removed a currency peg in June.

Both nations face the risk of a recession after contracting in the first quarter of the year. The Nigerian economy shrank 0.4 per cent in the three months to end-March from a year earlier, amid low oil prices and output, and a shortage of foreign currency. That curbed imports, including fuel.

In South Africa’s GDP contracted 0.2 per cent from a year earlier as farming and mining output declined.

“More than the growth outlook, in the short term the ranking of these economies is likely to be determined by exchange rate movements,” Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix Partners, said in e-mailed responses to questions on August 2. Although Nigeria is unlikely to be unseated as Africa’s largest economy in the long run, “the momentum that took it there in the first place is now long gone”.

The rand rallied as investors turned to emerging markets with liquid capital markets to seek returns after Britain voted to leave the EU on June 23, even as the South African Reserve Bank forecast that the economy would not expand in 2016 and the nation risked losing its investment-grade credit rating.

The ANC’s lowest support since 1994 in the August 3 local government vote led to further gains, on speculation that it would pressure the party to introduce economic reform that would boost growth and cut unemployment.

In Nigeria, investors did not flock to buy naira-based assets after authorities removed the peg of 197-199 naira per dollar. The Central Bank of Nigeria raised its benchmark interest rate to a record in July to lure foreign money, even as the IMF forecast the economy would contract 1.8 per cent this year.

Nigeria was assessed as the continent’s largest economy in April 2014 when authorities in the West African nation overhauled their GDP data for the first time in two decades. The recalculation resulted in the Nigerian economy in 2013 expanding by three-quarters to an estimated 80-trillion naira.

The rand gained 1per cent to 13.2805 per dollar at 4.03pm in Johannesburg on Wednesday. The naira weakened 2.7 per cent to 320 per dollar, Bloomberg reports.

63 thoughts on “Economy: KPMG doubts South Africa has overtaken Nigeria

  • Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article. I’ll be sure to bookmark it and return to read more of your useful info. Thanks for the post. I will certainly comeback.

  • This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. this is very nice one and gives indepth information. thanks for this nice article

  • I just want to mention I’m all new to blogging and site-building and actually liked this web-site. Almost certainly I’m want to bookmark your blog . You surely come with fabulous article content. Kudos for sharing your web site.

  • I simply want to tell you that I am all new to blogging and site-building and certainly liked you’re page. Likely I’m likely to bookmark your website . You certainly have terrific stories. Bless you for sharing with us your web-site.

  • I just want to mention I am newbie to blogging and site-building and definitely liked this web site. Almost certainly I’m likely to bookmark your website . You certainly have excellent writings. With thanks for revealing your web-site.

  • I simply want to say I’m new to blogging and site-building and honestly savored your website. Almost certainly I’m likely to bookmark your website . You amazingly have fabulous articles. Appreciate it for revealing your web page.

  • I simply want to tell you that I’m very new to weblog and certainly enjoyed you’re web-site. More than likely I’m going to bookmark your site . You surely come with beneficial posts. Bless you for sharing with us your blog.

  • I simply want to tell you that I’m beginner to weblog and definitely liked you’re web blog. Almost certainly I’m likely to bookmark your website . You surely come with fantastic posts. Thanks for revealing your web page.

  • I just want to say I am all new to blogs and honestly savored you’re website. Most likely I’m likely to bookmark your site . You absolutely have good articles. Thanks for sharing with us your webpage.

  • I just want to say I am just all new to blogging and site-building and really savored your website. Almost certainly I’m likely to bookmark your site . You certainly come with really good article content. Regards for revealing your website.

  • I just want to say I am very new to blogging and site-building and truly liked you’re web site. Probably I’m want to bookmark your blog . You really come with remarkable article content. Regards for sharing with us your web site.

  • I simply want to mention I am all new to weblog and really liked this blog. Likely I’m likely to bookmark your website . You definitely come with superb posts. Thanks a bunch for sharing your web page.

  • I simply want to mention I’m very new to blogging and honestly loved your website. More than likely I’m likely to bookmark your site . You definitely come with beneficial well written articles. Bless you for sharing with us your website.

  • Great blog here! Also your web site loads up very fast! What web host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol

  • Thanks for all of your efforts on this blog. Gloria takes pleasure in setting aside time for internet research and it’s really easy to understand why. We hear all concerning the lively medium you render helpful ideas through this website and in addition encourage response from other ones on that subject so our favorite daughter is always discovering a lot. Enjoy the rest of the new year. Your performing a really great job.
    online coupon codes aeropostale https://www.rebelmouse.com/haltingtechniqu23/the-latest-on-axs-1943055072.html

  • Some truly great posts on this web site, thank you for contribution. ¡°Once, power was considered a masculine attribute. In fact, power has no sex.¡± by Katharine Graham.

  • Neat blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog shine. Please let me know where you got your theme. Bless you

  • Wow in actual fact a great post. I like this.I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch because I found it for him. Overall, Lots of great information and inspiration, both of which we all need!

  • 9/24/2016 @ 18:55:28 Appreciate the site– very user-friendly and much to consider!

  • Usually I do not post on blogs, but I would like to say that this article really forced me to do so! Thanks, really nice article.

  • When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Thank you!|

  • Call 247 QuickBooks experts at 844 722 6675 for tech support. We can resolve any kind of QuickBooks issue in no time. Quickbooks tech support phone number USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBERUSA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBERUSA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER USA CANADA>>>1844-722-6675 QUICKBOOKS technical SUPPORT PHONE NUMBER QUICKBOOKS HELP DESK SUPPORT TELEHONE NUMBER

  • Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.

  • Jerold Jacoby

    9/27/2016 I’m pleased by the manner in which business247ng.com handles this type of subject matter. Usually to the point, often polemic, consistently thoughtful as well as challenging.

  • I precisely had to thank you very much yet again. I’m not certain what I would have followed in the absence of the entire creative concepts shown by you over such a concern. It seemed to be an absolute daunting difficulty in my position, nevertheless noticing the specialised avenue you resolved the issue made me to jump for delight. I am happy for this assistance and thus hope that you realize what an amazing job that you are doing instructing other individuals through your blog. Probably you have never got to know all of us.

  • 9/28/2016 Love this site– extremely easy to navigate and a lot of stuff to see!

  • 9/29/2016 @ 21:05:00 In my estimation, business247ng.com does a great job of covering issues of this sort! Even if frequently deliberately controversial, the information is generally well-written and challenging.

  • Solid, well-researched content. I just passed this on 9/30/2016 to a colleague who’s been involved in some work of her own on the topic. To show his appreciation, he just bought me a drink! So, I should probably say: Thanks for the drink!

  • Aloha, I found your blog on Bing Weblogs and think it is pretty intriguing and delivers fantastic material. Thank you regarding this superb post, I will certainly promote this on Twitter. Have a pleasant day on interior design ideas for home and office

  • I admire the beneficial information and facts you provide in your posts. I will bookmark your blog and have my children examine up right here often. From: home interior decoration design ideas

  • I really amazed of the information that you have actually have shared. I understand you’ve helped a lot of people with this article.

  • 10/2/2016 I’m pleased by the manner in which business247ng.com handles this type of subject matter! Usually on point, often polemic, without fail well-written and challenging.

  • 10/2/2016 business247ng.com does it yet again! Very informative site and a well-written post. Thanks!

  • Hiya! You some kind of professional website hosting? Great message. Are you able to tell me learn how to subscribe your blog?

  • Nice weblog right here! Also your website rather a lot up fast! What web host are you the usage of? Can I am getting your associate link to your host? I want my website loaded up as fast as yours lol|

  • Hey, thanks for sharing I always look forward to reading your posts one of the few blogs I still follow home decorated

  • Congrats for the inspiring site you’ve created at business247ng.com. Your enthusiasm is definitely contagious. Thanks again!

  • Hi there, just changed into aware of your blog through Google, and found that it is truly informative. I am gonna watch out for brussels. I’ll be grateful in the event you continue this in future. A lot of other folks will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  • Thanks for sharing superb informations. Your web-site is very cool. I’m impressed by the details that you have on this blog. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for extra articles. You, my friend, ROCK! I found simply the information I already searched everywhere and simply could not come across. What an ideal site.

  • Interesting, I wonder what the statistics are on your first point there on homedecorated

  • In my view, business247ng.com does a good job of dealing with issues like this. While frequently intentionally contentious, the material posted is in the main well researched and challenging.

  • Never Ever give up: Even though you fail initially; Dont manage to get a great deal of views at first, do your self a favour, do not give up.

  • 10/12/2016 business247ng.com does it yet again! Quite a perceptive site and a good post. Thanks!

  • I think other website proprietors should take this website as an model, very clean and magnificent user friendly style and design, as well as the content. You’re an expert in this topic!

  • Do you have a spam issue on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; we have developed some nice procedures and we are looking to swap techniques with other folks, please shoot me an email if interested.

  • Sweet blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you

  • I’m pleased by the manner in which business247ng.com handles this kind of issue! Usually to the point, often polemic, consistently thoughtful and more often than not quite stimulating.

  • I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. cheers

  • If you are going for most excellent contents like myself, only go to see this web page everyday since it gives feature contents, thanks|

  • I’m pleased with the way that business247ng.com covers this type of issue. Generally on point, often polemic, consistently well-researched and also thought-provoking.

  • download film terbaru sub indo has diamond like clarity and also in order for this to be striking you must use both that and.

  • business247ng.com does it yet again! Quite a informative site and a well-written post. Keep up the good work!

  • Thanks for another informative blog. Where else could I get that kind of information written in such a perfect way? I’ve a project that I am just now working on, and I have been on the look out for such information.

Comments are closed.