World Bank projects Nigeria’s GDP growth of 2.5% in 2018

The World Bank has projected that Nigeria economy would grow around 2.5 percent in this fiscal year, saying that the African biggest economy will benefit from improved commodity prices, investment, and trade.

The Bank in its January 2018 Global Economic Prospect report launched on Tuesday in Washington DC also predicted that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is seen growing by 2.8 percent in 2019 and 2020.

In addition, the bank said the global economic growth will go up to 3.1 per cent in 2018.

The bank said growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to continue to rise to 3.2 per cent in 2018 and to 3.5 per cent in 2019, on the back of firming commodity prices and gradually strengthening domestic demand.

However, the report showed that growth would remain below pre-crisis averages, partly reflecting a struggle in larger economies to boost private investment.

“South Africa is forecast to record 1.1 per cent growth in 2018 from 0.8 percent in 2017. The recovery is expected to solidify, as improving business sentiment supports a modest rise in investment.

“However, policy uncertainty was likely to remain and could slow needed structural reforms.

“Nigeria is anticipated to accelerate to a 2.5 percent rate this year from one percent growth in the year just ended. An upward revision to Nigeria’s forecast is based on the expectation that oil production will continue to recover and that reforms will lift non-oil sector growth.

“Growth in Angola is expected to increase to 1.6 percent in 2018, as a successful political transition improves the possibility of reforms that ameliorate the business environment,” it stated.

The report further revealed that Côte d’Ivoire would expand by 7.2 per cent in 2018, Senegal by 6.9 per cent; Ethiopia by 8.2 per cent, Tanzania by 6.8 per cent, and Kenya by 5.5 per cent as inflation eases.

The World Bank said that the regional outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa was subject to external and domestic risks. It showed that any unexpected activity in the United States and Euro Zone could have a negative impact on the region.

Also, an abrupt slowdown in China could generate adverse spillovers to the region through lower-than-expected commodity prices.

“On the domestic front, excessive external borrowing without forward-looking budget management could worsen debt dynamics and hurt growth in many countries.

“A steeper-than-anticipated tightening of global financing conditions could also lead to a reversal in capital flows to the region. Protracted political and policy uncertainty could further hurt confidence and deter investment in some countries.

“Rising government debt levels highlight the importance of fiscal adjustment to contain fiscal deficits and maintain financial stability.

“Structural policies including education, health, labour market, governance, and business climate reforms could help bolster potential growth,’’ it stated.

The World Bank called on policy makers the world over to focus on human investments to increase their countries’ productivity, and move closer to the goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.