Trans-Niger Pipeline Explosion: Nigeria risks over 450,000b/d crude oil production

Production of more than 450, 000 barrels of crude oil is at risk following an explosion reported today at the Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) in Rivers State.
The pipeline is considered one of Nigeria’s biggest oil pipelines. It is a major crude oil transportation pipeline in the Niger Delta region, which is known for its significant oil reserves.
The consortium, which includes Nigerian exploration and production companies Aradel Energy, First E & P, Waltersmith, and ND Western, along with the international energy group Petroline, now operates Shell’s former onshore subsidiary in Nigeria.
Operated by Renaissance and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), it spans approximately 180 kilometres (112 miles).
The TNP is an important infrastructure for transporting crude oil from oilfields in the Niger Delta to export terminals, primarily the Bonny Export Terminal. Its over 450,000 barrels of crude oil per day capacity, makes it a significant contributor to Nigeria’s oil production and export.
The incident, which occurred in Rivers State, is the latest in a series of political crises plaguing the country’s oil infrastructure.
The explosion, reported late Monday evening sent plumes of thick smoke into the sky, visible from miles away.
Residents described hearing a loud blast followed by intense heat and flames. While the cause of the explosion is yet to be known, authorities say investigation is ongoing.
Police authorities in Rivers have since arrested two persons over the explosion that rocked the Bodo community.
The incident comes at a time when the country is grappling with low crude oil production which has in turn affected its projected revenue. The Federal government had projected a crude oil production of 2.06 million barrels per in its almost N55 trillion 2205 budget, pegging it at $75 per barrel oil price for the year.

Nigeria currently relies heavily on crude oil production for the larger part of its revenue. The budget anticipates total revenue of N36.35 trillion, with oil revenues expected to contribute 56 per cent of government income.
Data obtained from both the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that in February, Nigeria was neither able to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, nor did it move closer to hitting its crude output forecast of over 2 million bpd in this year’s budget.
In February, the country recorded a reduced production of 1.671 million bpd, to increase the output gap.
The NUPRC data on Nigeria’s crude oil production saw oil and condensate output falling from 1.73 million bpd in January, a major blow to the successful implementation of this year’s budget.
OPEC, in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) indicated that the country’s crude oil production declined from 1.54 million bpd in January to 1.47 million bpd in February, about 4.81 per cent decline.
But secondary sources, mainly OPEC consultants, showed that crude oil production in the West African country rose to 1.56 million bpd in February from 1.53 million bpd in January, indicating a 1.96 per cent increase.
Production will not only be affected at the TNP.
According to the NUPRC data, among others, production decreased is also currently being experienced at the Ebok stream/terminal/ output went from 283,239 barrels to 278,452 barrels in February.
Production also fell from 120,796 barrels to 40,447 in Ajapa terminal and slumped from 4 million barrels to 3.68 million barrels in Bonga in February.
In addition, during the period under consideration, production from Erha terminal fell from 2.1 million barrels to 1.8 million barrels; 2.1 million barrels to 1.8 million barrels in Egina; from 504,000 barrels to 200,000 barrels in Oyo terminal and from 425,878 barrela to 408,590 barrels in Pennington.
The biggest volumes of output decline, took place at the Bonny terminal from 8.1 million barrels to 6.3 million barrels. Also, it reduced from about 1 million barrels to 876,000 in Brass; 4.63 million barrels to 4.2 million barrels in Qua Iboe; 8.8 million barrels to 7.7 million barrels in Forcados; 4.4 million barrels in Excravos to 3.8 million barrels and 2.3 million barrels to 2 million barrels in Odudu terminal.
“Lowest and peak production in February were 1.60 million bpd and 1.76 million bpd respectively. The daily average production in February was 1,671,953 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil of 1,465,006 bpd and condensate of 206,948 bpd.
“The average crude oil production was 98 per cent of OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd”, the NUPRC data stated.
With February’s production figures falling below OPEC’s quota, budgetary assumptions, petroleum ministry’s projections, and the explosion at the TNP, it is unlikely that the country would meet its revenue targets for 2025.