Agbakoba writes President Tinubu, presents OAL policy document on ₦500trn budget strategy

22nd April 2025

His Excellency, Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
Presidential Villa,
Aso Rock,
Abuja,

Attention: Ms. Hadiza Bala Usman,
Special Adviser to the President on Policy and Coordination
RE: GOVERNANCE AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST 2025: TO SUCCEED NIGERIA NEEDS INNOVATION AND EFFICIENCY TO CREATE A ₦500 TRILLION BUDGET FOR 2026/2027

I hope this letter finds you well. I have enclosed our latest policy document titled: “GOVERNANCE AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST 2025: TO SUCCEED NIGERIA NEEDS INNOVATION AND EFFICIENCY TO CREATE A ₦500 TRILLION BUDGET FOR 2026/2027,” which we would like you to consider.

This policy document outlines a bold yet achievable vision for Nigeria’s economic transformation, with particular emphasis on an aspect often overlooked in economic planning—the critical role of legal policy frameworks in driving sustainable economic development.

There exists a commonly held view that legal policy plays no role in economic development. We respectfully submit that this perspective is fundamentally flawed. Our research and analysis demonstrate that legal policy is, in fact, a key determinant—indeed, a primary driver—of economic development. A country may possess abundant natural resources, human capital, and financial investments, but without robust legal and institutional frameworks, meaningful development remains elusive.

Nigeria’s potential for achieving a ₦500 trillion economy is predicated on establishing this crucial link between legal policy and economic development. The quality of institutions is not merely a peripheral factor but a central pillar in fostering sustainable growth. When legal frameworks are weak, investment is deterred, property rights remain insecure, contracts become unenforceable, and corruption flourishes—all of which undermine development regardless of a nation’s resource endowment.

Most of Nigeria’s economic development plans we have examined notably exclude legal policy considerations—an oversight we believe constitutes a grave error. Eminent development scholars have long highlighted this grave error, including Professor Mancur Olson, whose research emphasises that “development will not occur unless legal analysis is taken into account.” Professor Olson’s scholarly work demonstrates that while traditional economic theories focused on aggregate factors like capital, land, and labour, these factors alone cannot explain development disparities. His simple but profound conclusion is that “the quality of a country’s institutions is a principal determinant of its economic performance.”

Similarly, Hernando De Soto’s groundbreaking work “The Mystery of Capital” explains why Nigeria lacks a functioning mortgage system despite enormous potential—a direct consequence of inadequate legal frameworks for property rights. De Soto illustrates how property consists of two values: physical and conceptual. While the physical value may be a house, the conceptual value exists in property law systems. Without robust legal frameworks to represent property conceptually, Nigeria cannot access the estimated six trillion dollars in housing assets that could generate capital for development.

The links between institutional and legal frameworks and economic performance have been extensively demonstrated in Acemoglu and Robinson’s seminal work “Why Nations Fail.” Their research convincingly shows that inclusive institutions—those that promote widespread economic participation, encourage competition, innovation, equal opportunities, and respect for private property—represent the key determinant of sustained economic performance. Their analysis reveals how nations with similar resource endowments follow drastically different development trajectories based primarily on their institutional quality.

Legal policy and economic reforms are deeply intertwined because legal frameworks provide the foundation for markets, transactions, and governance. Legal reforms enable economic reforms by making them credible, enforceable, and attractive to investors. Legal policy is not a technical side issue—it is central to economic performance.

We respectfully request Your Excellency’s attention to our policy document, which provides a detailed roadmap for integrating legal policy reforms with economic transformation strategies. We believe this approach will revolutionize Nigeria’s development trajectory and help realize our nation’s immense potential.
Yours faithfully,

Dr. Olisa Agbakoba SAN